Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and accounts for one-third of global deaths. Cardiac is the largest therapy (Rs183 bn in size) in the Indian pharma market (IPM), accounting for ~13% share in it and growing at 10% CAGR. It has displaced anti-infectives as the leading therapy in the India Pharma Market (IPM). Analysts are positive on the sector's outlook as they believe it to remain a dominant therapy for some years. "We expect it to remain a dominant therapy for the next 10-15 years and gain 300-400bps share in the same period," says Bansi Desai, Institutional Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.



Among the listed players, HDFC Securities find potential in Lupin, Glenmark, JB Chemicals and Cipla. The brokerage house believes these companies are likely to gain market share. Among the unlisted players, Mankind and USV are potential gainers.

Top picks are Cipla (target price at 855), Lupin (target price at 1,185), and Aurobindo (target price 1,015). HDFC Securities maintains ADD rating on Dr. Reddy’s (Target price 5,375), Sun Pharma (target price 570) and Torrent Pharma (target price 2,745).

The WHO estimates that by 2030, CVD would be responsible for more than 35% deaths in India (vs. 25% in 2016) with ischemic heart disease and stroke responsible for >80% of this burden, says the HDFC Securities reprot.

Notwithstanding COVID disruption, the cardiac market grew at 10% YoY vs. 4% decline in IPM from Apr-Aug 20.